What did Iran gain?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just announced the imminent release of 15 British sailors and marines Iran’s Revolutionary Guard forces captured 12 days ago.

What did Iran gain from this incident? With respect to Iran’s external relations, we can’t find much positive for Iran. All military and police personnel that operate near Iran’s borders (on both sides of that border) will now do so with a much higher level of vigilance and armament. Their rules of engagement will also likely get an upgrade to “shoot first, ask questions later”. The probability of real shooting on or over Iran’s border has gone up.

And this is likely what certain elements inside Iran really wanted from this affair. A shooting war with somebody from the outside world may benefit the internal standing of some faction of Iran’s governing structure. Perhaps this faction was surprised and a little annoyed that the 15 British servicemen did not resist 12 days ago. In any case, they will likely get what they want the next time.

And just because some faction inside Iran wants some shooting should not imply that the West should not. The West, especially the United States, benefits from escalation with Iran; the U.S. will then be able to utilize its military and technical superiority which is now holstered. And if there are other factions inside Iran that wish to contain the militant faction, they may have a greater opportunity to do so after the militants blunder into something disastrous for Iran.

In recent posts we have described good news and bad news for the West from this affair. Today’s sudden release of the British servicemen does not change our views on these conclusions. Iran’s financial and economic isolation will continue apace. And common citizens in Britain and Europe will still have some worrisome questions about their security, who will provide for it, and whether they have any reliable allies.

The British hostage affair will apparently soon be over. But no one has escaped from anything.