Georgia must switch to unconventional warfare

It is time, perhaps past time, for Georgia to implement an unconventional warfare strategy. Yesterday’s news reports indicated that Georgian tanks and infantry were dug in north of Gori, preparing to defend that strategic crossroads from a Russian armored assault. Today’s reports suggest that the Georgian defense of Gori has failed:

Russia reportedly captured the central city of Gori and its armored vehicles rolled deep into western Georgia on Monday, seizing a military base and several towns and opening a second front of fighting. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said the Russian forces had effectively cut his country in half.

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The incursions came despite a top Russian general's claim earlier Monday that Russia had no plans to enter Georgian territory. If it has taken Gori, which sits on Georgia's only east-west highway and just 60 miles from the capital Tbilisi, Russia would have effectively cut the country in half.

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On Monday afternoon, Russian troops invaded Georgia from the western separatist province of Abkhazia while most Georgian forces were in the central region around South Ossetia.

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Abkhazia's Russian-supported separatist government called out the army and reservists on Sunday and declared it would push Georgian forces out of the northern part of the Kodori Gorge, the only area of Abkhazia still under Georgian control.

A Russian commander said 9,000 additional Russian troops and 350 armored vehicles had arrived in Abkhazia.

In my last post, I predicted that the Russian offensive is most likely a punitive raid and not a permanent occupation of Georgia. A Russian delegation intends to brief NATO officials in Brussels, an action that I believe supports this forecast.

However, Georgia’s leaders need to prepare for the worst case scenario, a long-term Russian occupation of Georgia and an attempt by Russia to install either a Russian pro-consul or a puppet government in Tbilisi.

Georgia’s leaders, and perhaps its U.S. military advisors, appear to have underestimated the Russian army’s ability to logistically support and reinforce its offensive. This being the case, and with the Russians seeming to enjoy air supremacy, the Georgian army has no ability to stand and fight against Russian conventional forces, as results from the past two days seem to verify. It becomes urgent then for the Georgian military to immediately switch to an unconventional warfare strategy. One wonders whether the Georgian military leadership and government have made any preparations for such a strategy.

What actions should the Georgian government take to implement an unconventional warfare approach?

1. Fragment the army into platoon and squad-sized units.

2. Have these units shed their army uniforms.

3. Disperse these units into Georgia’s cities, villages, and farms.

4. Stockpile and disperse weapons, ammunition, explosives, and rations.

5. Prepare the government to either find a mountain redoubt or to leave the country.

6. Most important, reorganize and energize Georgia’s media and propaganda operations. Today, Russia began to lose the media war. Georgia’s media operations need to turn this into a decisive rout.

Today was a bad day for Georgia’s defense. But it could be the beginning of a long string of bad days for Russia if Georgia’s leadership can act quickly.