Will the Arab states help Israel with its border problems?

Writing today at the Wall Street Journal, Max Boot has summed up the dilemma Israel faces as it confronts both Hamas and Hezbollah:

The essential dilemma Israel faces is this: It can't ignore Hamas's attacks, not only because of the damage they inflict, but also because of the terrible precedent they set. Israel has always been a state that is one battle away from destruction, and it cannot allow its enemies to think that it can be attacked with impunity. But at the same time Israel cannot do what it takes to wipe out the enemy, because of the constraints imposed by its own public, which is far less willing than in the past to suffer or inflict bloodletting.

So the Jewish state is forced to fight an unsatisfying war of attrition with Hamas, Hezbollah and other entities bent on its destruction. The current incursions are only one stage of this lengthy struggle. The odds are that once Israeli troops leave, Hamas will rebuild its infrastructure, forcing the Israelis to go back in the future.

This is the definition of a quagmire, yet Israel has no choice but to keep doing what it's doing. Unlike the French in Algeria or the Americans in Vietnam, it cannot simply pack its bags and go home. If Israel is to continue to exist, it will have to continue to wage low-intensity war for a long time to come -- definitely years, probably decades, possibly centuries.

Is this a quagmire Israel can sustain for decades or centuries? No - it is not a strategy worth betting on.

Thus, Israel needs to change the rules of the game. To achieve a stable end-state for the long run, Israel needs to:

1) Change the behavior of the Hamas leadership in Gaza, or

2) Change the leadership in Gaza, or

3) Remove Gaza’s military capacity.

As I have previously discussed, a punitive raid cannot guarantee the achievement of any of these aims. A permanent reoccupation of Gaza by the Israeli army is almost certainly unsustainable over the long term.

At this point, Israel’s leaders must be hoping for external assistance to change the situation in Gaza. In my last post on this subject, I saw hints that the Israeli government may be hoping that a negotiated cease-fire will include a force of international observers inside Gaza to supervise the Hamas side of a hypothetical cease-fire. Israeli leaders may be hoping that “adult supervision” inside Gaza would prevent a return to Hamas rocket attacks.

This is obviously a fragile arrangement and one Hamas (and Hezbollah) can void at any time. So what other external help might Israel get?

Although leaders from Arab and Islamic countries have made their obligatory speeches condemning Israel’s punitive response, there seems little love lost in the Arab world for Hamas’s leadership. Four or five decades ago, flare-ups against Israel were politically beneficial to leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, etc. Today, however, that is no longer the case and will not be so in the future. Thus, Israel may hope for greater help from its former Arab opponents in suppressing Hamas and Hezbollah.

Of course, it is Iran and not the Arabs that sustains Hamas and Hezbollah. These proxy militias have been Israel’s problem, and not so much a problem for the Arab countries.

Might that change? Or is there anything Israel can do to get the Arab countries to worry as much about Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Gaza as Israel does?

With respect to Iran, Israel and the Arab states have common long term interests. The first order of business for both is Iran’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile threats. Military cooperation between Israel and former enemies such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq has been unthinkable. As the Iranian threat advances, the unthinkable may become thinkable.

But Arab leaders should also ponder the issue of Iranian proxy militias. It was politically easy for Iran to organize and support anti-Israeli militias in south Lebanon and Gaza. With that prototype now proven, Arab leaders should wonder whether Iran has the capability to extend the model to Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia, and (trying again) Iraq. Countering such Iranian efforts will be even more difficult after Iran becomes a nuclear weapon state.

Israel needs help from the outside if it is to achieve a stable end-state for Gaza. In the end, this will mean confronting Iran. Once again, this is not something Israel can do by itself. Will the international community help with either Gaza or Iran? Not much to hope for there. What about the Arab states? Might they find it in their interest to become Israel’s friend?